St. Joseph Church
Bristol, Connecticut
Deacon Robert M. Pallotti, D. Min.
Pastoral Minister
Strategic
Nuclear Forces of the United States and Russia
after Start II*
For the past three decades MAD or Mutually Assured
Destruction has been the situation facing the United States and Russia. Since the demise
of the Soviet Union, the United States has acquired more of a theoretical first strike
capability. That is a function of number of weapons, their accuracy, and reliability--and
most important, the number of targets at an intercontinental range.
If present trends continue, the number of first strike
targets in Russia will so diminish under START II that the United States could launch a
preemptive first strike with high confidence. This poses an unacceptable risk in the light
of the political changes of the last few years. This posture also undermines any incentive
for Russia to ratify START II.
ICBMs
U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have been
reduced from 1,000 armed with 2,550 warheads, to 550 missiles with 2,050 warheads, a
reduction of just 19 %. When the 50 MX missiles are retired under START II, the ICBM force
will shrink to 500 Minutemen III missiles upgraded with MX warheads and reentry vehicles.
This will provide "Peacekeeper accuracy" (MX) through the second decade of the
next century.
Russian ICBMs have decreased from 925 missiles armed with
5,575 warheads to 755 missiles with 3,590 warheads. After eliminating SS-18 and SS-24
heavy ICBMs, and retiring all but 170 SS-19s, Russia will have no more than 500-600
missiles, more than half of those being mobile SS-25s. The number of Russian ICBM hard
targets will decrease from 1,400 to 270.
Ballistic Missile Submarines
The U.S. ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force has been
reduced from 32 submarines with 584 missiles and 5,024 warheads to 18 submarines carrying
432 missiles with 3,456 warheads. In 1990, 23 of those subs dated from the 1960's. Today's
fleet consists of entirely modern Ohio-class Tridents. The Trident I missile has been
upgraded giving it a moderate hard-target kill capability, is being replaced entirely by
the Trident II D5 missiles, which are capable of extremely accurate hard-target kill
capability. They will be armed with 384 W88 high-yield ( 475 kts.) warheads. Hard-target
warheads will increase from 8 % in 1990 to 26% under START II.
The Russian SSBN force is currently estimated at 26
submarines armed with 440 missiles and 2,272 warheads. The number of missiles has
decreased only 16 %. Most submarines are at a low state of readiness in port. Russia will
maintain at least 15 boasts and replacing the last Delta IIIs with new Borey class boats.
Bombers
The U.S. operational bomber force consists of 92 armed with
1,800 modern warheads and cruise missiles.
Nearly half of Russia's 113 bombers are located in Ukraine.
There is no known modernization program.
After START II
The U.S. maintains a robust short-warning first-strike
capability ! Under START II, it will retain 900 warheads with hard-target kill capability.
The Russian force in its START II day to day configuration
will represent some 300 targets fewer than 500.
* cf. William Arkin and Hans Kristensen, "Dangerous
Directions", The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. March/April 1998, pp.26-31.
Compiled by Deacon Robert M. Pallotti, D. Min.
Created 4/29/1998
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