St. Joseph Church
Bristol, Connecticut
Deacon Robert M. Pallotti, D. Min.
Pastoral Minister |
CSIS
Nuclear Strategy group, A Nuclear Peace:The Future of Nuclear Weapons in U.S. Foreign
and Defense Policy (June 1993).
Envisages a two phase process for changing US nuclear strategy, with various possible
end-states from maintenance of "nonoperational" national nuclear forces, to an
international nuclear force to replace national forces to complete disarmament. |
| Phase
I |
| ACTIONS |
FEATURES OF STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT |
| US and Russia:Reduce first to 1000 warheads each,
then to 500-1000, and consider ban on tactical nuclear weapons.
Reduce operational tempo - move
almost all ICBMs to non-alert status, install early-warning system on missile fields of
other state, restrict daily operations of SSBNs
US:Take lead in establishing global
treaties and agreements providing specific sanctions for nuclear use.
Begin discussions with Second tier
states. NATO consider ban on tactical nukes. UK, France, PRC agree to restrict
arsenals to 200 operational strategic warheads.
|
No change in major assumptions regarding nuclear strategy and
roles of nuclear weapons:
Anarchic international system, in
which nuclear weapons may help keep peace.
US nuclear policy based on MAD
Extended Deterrent role for nuclear
weapons.
Bilateral nuclear balance.
Russian Government willing to
cooperate in arms control.
Treaty banning first use of nuclear
weapons and establishing "clear and credible political, economic, and military
sanctions (short of direct intervention) for use of nuclear weapons".
Source:
Rotblat, Joseph, ed. Nuclear
Weapons: The Road to Zero(Westview Press, Boulder Colorado, 1998). |
| Phase
II |
| ACTIONS |
FEATURES OF STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT |
Move to "end-state".
Alternative End-states include:
- Non-operational nuclear forces.
- International nuclear force.
- Complete and total disarmament
|
End to anarchic international
system: "considerable progress" toward rule of law in international affairs.
- Leaders of major states no longer view nuclear weapons as necessary
to deter war, enjoy friendly relations, and have faith in conflict resolution system.
- May require:
- Movement toward representative democracy in major states.
- Development of international organizations able to mediate disputes,
prevent and control conflict.
- Web of economic, military, political treaties and commitments.
- Dispute resolution and crisis management mechanisms.
- Robust security guarantees.
- Stiff penalties/sanctions for resort to war.
|
| |
Compiled by Deacon Robert M.
Pallotti, D. Min.
Created 5/15/2000 |